How accurate are long-range weather forecasts?
Quick Answer: Long-range weather forecasts (beyond 7-10 days) are only somewhat accurate. They give general trends but not specific details. Accuracy drops sharply the further out you go, so expect broad predictions rather than exact weather events for weeks ahead.
Long-range forecasts rely on computer models that simulate the atmosphere but have limits. Small changes in initial conditions grow over time, making precise predictions difficult beyond a week or so.
Meteorologists use these forecasts mainly to spot general patterns like warmer or cooler periods or chances of rain. Think of them as weather hints, not promises.
So, for day-to-day planning, stick to short-term forecasts. For months out, use long-range forecasts as rough guides, not detailed schedules.